A recent GE Oil & Gas report entitled Digital Future of oil & gas and energy discusses a number of expected trends including the continued growth of oil consumption, suggesting that by 2020 the global economy will be significantly larger than it is today.
By 2020, the global economy will be one-fifth larger than today, in real terms, and the global population will have increased by about one billion people. By the latter part of the century, the world population is projected to reach 11 billion people, a 50 percent increase from the current 7.3 billion.
The growth will in part be driven by consumer usage growth:
Key oil demand indicators have remained robust, with vehicle miles travelled in the United States growing at the strongest pace in a decade, and a rebound in vehicle sales in China. Demand conditions also appear resilient in the European Union (where vehicle sales grew at about 3 percent in 2015, double the 2014 pace), Japan and India—which, together with the United States and China, account for nearly 60 percent of global oil demand.
Regarding regional opportunities, significant growth will come from Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
China is already—and will remain—the largest consumer of energy; it is set to become the largest consumer of oil by 2030, surpassing the United States. However, as its economy rebalances toward domestic consumption and services, it will become less energy intensive, and the pace of Chinese energy demand growth will slow. In India, on the other hand, the process of industrialization is about to accelerate, driving a much steeper increase in energy demand. Its oil consumption will increase nearly threefold by 2040. Africa, the Middle East and Latin America will also see significant increases in demand.
The free 20-page report from GE Oil & Gas can be downloaded here.